Construction Logistics Forecasting_

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Introduction

Construction Logistics Call Forward Programme forecasting is the process by which logistics activities within job programmes are forecast from initial conditions through to programme completion, based on the predecessor relationships defined in the logistics programme templates.

Each activity within a logistics programme template is related to the rest of the programme via it's predecessor relationships, which determine the hierarchical order that the activities are to progress through. This hierarchy is used during the forecasting process to determine when a given activity is called, called-for, started, and completed.

The following dates are available on each logistics activity for forecasting:

• Called - the date that the activity is 'called' i.e when the supplier is formally notified to complete the works

• Called For - the date that the activity is scheduled/expected to start,  ie. when the supplier is requested to start

• Start - the date that the activity is started

• Complete - the date that the activity is completed

There are two different forecasts automatically maintained in Construction Logistics.

Baseline Forecast

This is the initial set of forecasts that apply to the activities, incorporating no "real-world" information, such as delays, supervisor knowledge, actual progress). Non-possible/working days are considered in the baseline forecast. Non-possible days that become apparent during the job's progress will also influence the baseline forecast. This baseline forecast is the reference point for how the programme was expected to run/unfold.

Best Possible Forecast

This forecast considers the current state of completed activities as they occur, assuming a 'best possible' scenario for incomplete activities, based on the predecessor relationships and assuming all future activities will run as expected from the values specified in the programme, from 'today' onward. This best possible forecast is influenced by the real world influences, such as when activities are actually called, called-for, started, and complete. This may result in forecast dates either before or after the the baseline forecast, but in reality usually reflect real world delays and scheduling challenges. 

These forecasts also consider manual forecasts recorded by the supervisor based on real world information being available.

Note: It has been suggested by some Logistics users attempting to improve on "chosen" labour allocation that the Best Possible forecast should not be affected/synchronised with Manual Forecast (or even Called For) dates so that a business can see what improvement could be achieved if different labour (or even supervisor) resources were available. This is currently not supported, and is under review.

When Does Forecasting Occur?

In Framework ECM (the office system) forecast dates are recalculated as a part of an "Update Progress" process that typically occurs as a job's call forward (or start date) is changed in any way. In Framework Logistics Tablet, progress is only updated either when the supervisor/user chooses to do so manually, or with a Meeting Day Synchronise to the office. In Logistics implementations where jobs are managed (ie. updated) by multiple people in the field on multiple Tablets, automatic/sync forecasting is disabled, and centrally performed (typically nightly) in the office. It is important to understand your configuration of Logistics and forecasting to correctly interpret forecast dates, especially where auto-forecasting is disabled and new "actual" data has been updated, as forecasts may appear incorrect or old until forecasting processes are next performed.